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Jan 5, 2025
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Former Republican Nate Bell video games out Democrats' path to triumph


Former Republican Nate Bell video games out Democrats' path to triumph



Candidates submitted paperwork and formally registered as prospects with the secretary of state's workplace in Little Rock in November, 2023. The occasion was kept in the rotunda of the state Capitol.

John Sykes/Arkansas Advocate 11/06/2023


In my last column, I recommended that Republican overreaching and corruption offer Arkansas Democrats with an opportunity to pick up speed politically and win elections in 2026. That chance is real..

Existing political problems can't be overcome up until their presence is acknowledged, the causes identified, and the core concerns solved. One of those concerns is the logical failure of incorrect agreement, where we persuade ourselves that many individuals agree with us.

I'm unabashedly opposed to abortion in almost all instances. I made the endorsement of Arkansas Right to Life in each of my legislative races. I'm an NRA life member. I bring a concealed pistol daily. I own black rifles. My positions on gun policies have actually been explained by Arkansas Times writers using a litany of vibrant and less than complimentary adjectives. It's reasonable to say that I'm well ideal of center on both topics. In spite of my individual views, I acknowledge that publicly readily available long-lasting Arkansas polling plainly indicates current policy trends favor Democrats on these issues. One exceptional example of this is the almost 20% shift in citizen attitudes on abortion laws that started in 2020, well before the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs choice that let states enact laws forbiding abortion. A leftward trend likewise exists concerning gun control laws, though it's happening much more slowly than the quick shift on abortion..

I associate both modifications mostly to perceived legal overreach, however outside influences like the Dobbs choice and mass shootings definitely impact the speed. Issues about legal overreach contributed to the defeat of several constitutional amendments recently proposed by Arkansas legislators, consisting of all 3 described voters in the 2022 election.
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I'm certain that when polled, the book bans, privacy intrusions and other authoritarian laws gone by the 94th General Assembly will only further entrench citizen beliefs that the Legislature runs out control. It's significant that libraries surveyed at 83% approval in the 2023 Arkansas Poll, well ahead of every politician who has publicly attacked them.

No discussion of overreach by Arkansas chose authorities is complete without a mention of our guv's partly successful attempt to get rid of citizen access to most public records in an unique session in 2015.
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Recently, very few political stories have gotten in touch with everyday, non-political Arkansans like the ongoing scandal surrounding the $19,029.25 custom lectern purchased by Gov. Sarah Sanders. No matter how thoroughly the rhetoric is scripted, Arkansans who work long hours to make $40K every year are generally disgusted that our guv felt entitled to spend the equivalent of half their yearly income on an obscenely expensive prop.
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I've always thought that political scandals tend to "stick" when the finest possible spin on them is still repulsive to non-political people. Daily Arkansans understand it's just not right, and they do not like it.

If any such 2024 projects exist, I haven't seen proof of them. The problems raised in the Democratic campaigns I'm seeing look more like those I 'd anticipate in primaries and not in basic election projects where the goal is broad appeal.

In the meantime, let's circle back to the incorrect consensus I mentioned earlier. Yes, ballot shows Arkansas citizens are making a leftward shift on policy, however it's a LONG way from being overwhelming. The realigning electorate isn't yet large enough to impact the outcome of an election in more than a handful of legislative districts, virtually all of which are currently held by Democrats.
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If electoral gains are the goal, a bigger tent is required. Effective coalitions MUST include Trump citizens and Sarah's voters. I didn't vote for either of them, however have actually been told lots of times that my positions on the Second Amendment and abortion make me unwanted in Democratic circles.

Proselytizing is needed. Conversions require persuasion, and persuasion needs credibility and relationship..
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Obviously every rule has exceptions, however usually, elections are won by winning citizens' trust and being likable. Accomplish both, and you will win elections. Fail and you will lose them.

Voters want to see a little of themselves reflected in candidates for chosen workplace, however it must be genuine. Voters can spot inauthenticity through more layers than can be purchased or staged. Prospects matter. Discover another prospect if a prospect for office does not fit in easily at the local hangouts. If they do not have a record of civic participation and public service, why would a voter think their project rhetoric about seeking to serve? Nominating bad or unqualified candidates doesn't stimulate strength; it just damages your brand..
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This brings me to recognizing the races that are in play, prospect recruitment and allocation of resources. Chris Jones was a strong Democratic prospect for guv. If he wasn't within 10 points in a legal district, every penny spent in 2024 attempting to choose a Democrat because slot is squandered.

Some of the most susceptible Republicans routinely run unopposed, while scarce resources are misused targeting candidates who are disliked, however not vulnerable. I have comprehensive individual experience with this. I won both my re-election projects by margins going beyond 30% regardless of being a leading target of Arkansas Democrats in both cycles. I was never vulnerable to beat, and a few dollars invested polling-- and even just a couple of minutes invested looking at data-- would have made that clear. Susceptible incumbents went unchallenged while I decisively squashed my opponents. Those targeting decisions were certainly made emotionally, not rationally. A winning political celebration chooses and identifies target races based upon truth, not anger or wishful thinking.

Arkansas Democrats held a press conference last October. Included was a lectern they 'd bought at state surplus for $5. It was an excellent minute; in truth, it was genius-level staging. Then, rather of capitalizing on that excellent opportunity by focusing on exposing corruption and looking for accountability, or even to state all the recent instances of legislative overreach, most of the time was devoted to grumbling that the state executed a Biden administration required on Medicaid eligibility too quickly.

Ask the folks on the bench in front of your local feed shop or at the round table in back of the corner shop if they care about how a Medicaid policy is carried out. Polling informs us that for most people, it's not a concern. Invest more time listening to them if you desire to win elections.
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They'll inform you..

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Elwood Hill
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Elwood Hill

Elwood Hill is an award-winning journalist with more than 18 years' of experience in the industry. Throughout his career, John has worked on a variety of different stories and assignments including national politics, local sports, and international business news. Elwood graduated from Northwestern University with a degree in journalism and immediately began working for Breaking Now News as lead journalist.

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